Oddly specific predictions for every Top 25 college football team (Hint: Texas is back!)

Notre Dame starts its next-to-last-season of football independence a week from Saturday against Navy in Ireland. No, the Irish haven’t announced plans to join a conference in football yet.

But in the spirit of Down Goes Brown’s oddly specific preseason predictions, why not begin this year’s college football column with a seismic forecast? Because it’s obvious to anyone watching the current round of realignment that the Big Ten is adding every team Notre Dame plays until the Irish have no choice but to relent and join, too.

Sure, it may sound a little far-fetched. But is it really after what just happened to the Pac-12? Once Florida State finds a loophole to get out of the final 13 years of the ACC’s grant of rights agreement — and the folks in Tallahassee swear they will — a second Power 5 league exodus that affects play beginning with the 2025 season will commence. Eventually, the Big Ten, to keep the Irish from joining the SEC, will give into Notre Dame’s demands and allow Stanford and Cal a seat at the Big Ten table — only after the league expands to 26 teams and goes from playing nine conference games to 11 will Notre Dame join the rebranded conference known simply as B1G.

Of course, I could be wrong. So, maybe only three ACC teams (FSU, Clemson and North Carolina) join the B1G instead of five (sorry, Miami and Virginia Tech) and Notre Dame becomes the 24th team to join the conference. But I reserve the right to claim partial victories. As a native Floridian, I’m allowed to fudge the math a little.

With that, let’s kick off this year’s set of oddly specific predictions for every Top 25 college football team as voted by the coaches in the preseason poll.

1. Georgia

Brock Bowers is the man, and he’s going to become not only the first two-time Mackey Award winner but also the first tight end to finish in the top three of the Heisman vote since Notre Dame’s Ken MacAfee in 1977. Carson Beck, meanwhile, will throw four more touchdowns (33) than Stetson Bennett did in either of the two championship seasons. A third of them will come on screen passes. The only regular-season game Georgia won’t win by double-digits is its trip to Tennessee on Nov. 18 when Bowers hauls in his 14th touchdown catch of the season between three defenders with 14 seconds left to pull out a 41-36 victory. Shockingly, Georgia will be overtaken by Florida State for the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in December. But that will be the Bulldogs’ only loss of the season.

The Wolverines will not defend their title as the best offensive line in college football, and Jim Harbaugh will make a snide remark about it after Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards each rush for more than 1,200 yards and combine for 32 touchdowns. Safety Rod Moore will top the Big Ten with eight interceptions, including three in a blowout win at Michigan State. But after escaping Lincoln and Happy Valley with narrow, three-point road victories, Michigan will lose to Ohio State and be knocked out of the Big Ten title game. It’ll happen when a field goal gets blocked and returned for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter by someone unrelated to Appalachian State’s Corey Lynch.

The Crimson Tide haven’t lost three games in a season since 2010, and that streak will continue even after Nick Saban starts three different quarterbacks in the regular season. Tyler Buchner will win the job out of camp, but Jalen Milroe will take over after the Tide lose at Texas A&M on Oct. 7. Ty Simpson will replace Milroe after the team’s second loss, to LSU, on Nov. 4. The good news for Bama: Dallas Turner will share the SEC lead with 13 sacks, and the defense will help the Tide win 10 regular-season games, including the season finale against Auburn on Kool-Aid McKinstry’s third interception return of the year for a touchdown.

4. Ohio State

Marvin Harrison Jr. will become the Big Ten’s first Biletnikoff Award winner since Braylon Edwards in 2004, and he’ll finish second in the Heisman vote, too. As we mentioned, Ryan Day is going to be thanking his field goal block team for getting the Buckeyes back to the Big Ten title game. But in a painful plot twist, the Buckeyes will stumble in the league championship game — their second loss of the season — and Michigan will vault into the College Football Playoff without controversy. The first loss for OSU: delivered by Notre Dame on Sept. 23 on a last-second Sam Hartman rushing touchdown.

5. LSU

Harold Perkins Jr. will be selected as the nation’s best linebacker after tying Turner for the SEC lead in sacks. He’ll have a game-clinching pick six in the final win at home against Texas A&M before the Tigers make a return trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs will run for more than 1,100 yards and boost LSU’s offense, which will average 40 points a game (up from 34.5). But a loss in the opener to Florida State on a blocked punt, plus a defeat to Georgia in the SEC title game, will keep the Tigers out of the Playoff.

Picking the 44-time Pac-12 champions to win the league in its final year of existence (as we know it) makes a lot of sense with a healthy Heisman-winning Caleb Williams back at quarterback. Williams will earn an invite back to the Heisman ceremony after combining for 55 total touchdowns. But neither he nor USC is going home with any hardware. The Trojans defense will give up more than 29 points a game for the second year in a row (more than that in losses in three of the last five regular-season games, to Utah, Washington and Oregon). It’s part of the bad luck USC created for itself when it caused the breakup of the Pac-12, angering the football gods.

The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten Ohio State and Michigan in the same season since 2008 — and that drought will continue with losses to both for the third consecutive season. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen won’t run for as many yards as Michigan’s duo of Corum and Edwards, but they’ll still be one of the nation’s most formidable duos. Linebacker Abdul Carter and pass rusher Chop Robinson will team up to help Penn State lead the Big Ten again in sacks, combining for 20 between them. That’s before defensive coordinator Manny Diaz gets hired to replace Jeff Hafley at Boston College.

8. Florida State

Before the Seminoles announce they’re leaving for the Big Ten, Jordan Travis will earn an invite to the Heisman ceremony when he combines for 47 touchdowns and leads Florida State to its first ACC title game appearance since 2014. The Seminoles will once again lead the league in rushing yards behind a 1,203-yard season from Trey Benson, who will score the winning touchdowns against LSU in the opener and in overtime at Clemson in September. Jared Verse will top the ACC with 11 sacks. But losing at Pittsburgh on a failed two-point conversion in the rain in early November and then to Clemson in the ACC title game will cost the Seminoles a Playoff spot.

9. Clemson

Dabo Swinney’s hire of Garrett Riley as offensive coordinator is going to work out well, with quarterback Cade Klubnik improving as the season progresses and the Tigers hoisting the ACC crown yet again come December. Linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. will overtake Verse for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year Award when he racks up 100 tackles, nine sacks and a pair of pick sixes in November home wins versus Notre Dame and North Carolina. But an unfathomable upset loss at Duke on the opening weekend will cost Clemson — and the ACC — a spot in the Playoff.

The resurrection of Rocky Top last season wasn’t fake, and Josh Heupel will prove it by winning 10 regular-season games again, with Joe Milton leading the SEC in passing efficiency and explosive passing plays (17 completions of 40 yards or more). Bru McCoy will do just fine stepping into Jalin Hyatt’s shoes, finishing second to Ohio State’s Harrison for the Biletnikoff Award after catching 80 passes for 1,245 yards and 14 scores. The problem for Tennessee? There are not enough big-time playmakers on defense.

The Huskies are going to win the Pac-12 for the first time since 2018 and make the Playoff, allowing Big Ten fans to puff their chests and claim two participants in the sport’s championship. Michael Penix Jr., our next Heisman winner, will throw for more than 5,000 yards and 47 touchdowns as the Huskies lead college football in total offense. Washington didn’t face USC or Utah in 2022 when it won 11 games, but the Huskies will beat both by a touchdown in November to climb to No. 3 in the polls. Then, Penix will throw two of his six interceptions on shovel passes in a loss at Oregon State to ruin the Huskies’ perfect season. But Washington will rebound and sneak into the final four ahead of two-loss ACC champion Clemson.

TCU became the first Texas team to make the four-team Playoff last year, and Steve Sarkisian and Quinn Ewers will keep the momentum going, which will also allow SEC fans to claim a second team in the Playoff. After losing on a failed two-point attempt late in a Sept. 9 loss at Alabama, the Longhorns will rally behind Ewers’ 35 touchdown passes and win the Big 12 for the first time since 2009, finishing second to Georgia in the final polls. Tailback CJ Baxter will run for 1,100 yards and win the Shaun Alexander Award as the nation’s top freshman. The dream season will end, though, with a semifinal loss to Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

13. Notre Dame

The Irish will not figure into the national championship picture because they’ll lose at home to USC on Oct. 14 and have a 32-game winning streak against the ACC snapped at Clemson on Nov. 4. But Hartman is getting Notre Dame to 10 wins and briefly into the top five after throwing four touchdown passes in an upset of Ohio State on Sept. 23. Sophomore cornerback Benjamin Morrison will win the Thorpe Award as the best cover corner in college football, finishing with a nation-leading 10 interceptions and tying Mike Townsend for Notre Dame’s single-season record.

14. Utah

Kyle Whittingham’s team’s only loss heading into a mega showdown at Washington on Nov. 11 will be to Bo Nix and Oregon. With a national audience watching, the Utes will have their worst defensive performance of the season in Seattle against Penix. This will allow all Big Ten fans to claim both Pac-12 title game participants. Safety Cole Bishop, meanwhile, will lead the Pac-12 with seven interceptions. Utah will lead the league in scoring defense for the first time since 2019, allowing only 18 points per game.

The all-Big Ten final in the final Pac-12 Championship Game features a rematch of the one-loss Ducks looking for revenge against Washington and Penix — and not getting it. Nix’s late-game interception in the first meeting at Washington on Oct. 14 seals the Huskies’ 49-42 victory. Nix’s late fumble in the Pac-12 title game rematch puts a wrap on Washington’s 38-31 win. Those are two of only five turnovers Nix has the entire season. Brandon Dorlus’ 10 1/2 sacks earn him Pac-12 defensive player of the year honors.

16. TCU

There was nothing fluky about the Horned Frogs’ run to the national title game last year, but it should become apparent about halfway through the season that Max Duggan, Kendre Miller and Quentin Johnson are missed. TCU will average fewer than 34 points a game, but nine wins will be a good season after losing eight valuable starters on offense. Those losses will come to Kansas State and Oklahoma on the road and to Texas at home. I’m counting on safety Bud Clark to grab some late game-sealing interceptions in wins at Iowa State and Texas Tech. Clark will lead the Big 12 with seven picks.

17. Kansas State

The defending Big 12 champions will win nine regular-season games again. Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward will do a fine job replacing 1,500-yard rusher Deuce Vaughn — running for 1,330 yards and 15 touchdowns himself. But an early loss at home to Big 12 newcomer UCF and road losses to Texas and Texas Tech will be the result of a step back on defense with six starters gone. Those will push the Wildcats outside of the top two spots in the league. Linebacker Austin Moore, a former walk-on, will lead the Big 12 with 110 tackles and have the game-sealing interception to wrap up KSU’s 15th consecutive win against rival Kansas.

The Beavers are 12-1 at home over the past two seasons and will knock off visiting Washington on Nov. 18 to put themselves in position to reach the Pac-12 title game. But needing a win over their in-state rival on the final weekend of the regular season, Oregon State will come up just short. The Beavers will get a Pac-12-leading 1,421 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns from sophomore Damien Martinez — as well as a terrific turnaround season from Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback — but losses to Utah and Oregon will halt a dream season in the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it.

19. Oklahoma

Dillon Gabriel’s career-high 33 touchdown passes will keep fab freshman Jackson Arnold on the bench, and ex-Wake Forest starter Rondell Bothroyd will be one of five defensive line transfers who will help Oklahoma’s defense make a big jump in Year 2 under Brent Venables. But the Sooners, who were smashed 49-0 in the Red River Rivalry last year, still aren’t going to be good enough to beat Texas. The first loss to the Longhorns will come in a 25-point blowout on Oct. 7, and the second will be a much tighter, one-score game in the Big 12 title game rematch. That’ll allow SEC fans to wear new “Bleep Off If You’re Not in the SEC” T-shirts and brag about how much better their league will be with 16 teams than the 26-team B1G.

20. North Carolina

Few expected Sam Howell’s stats to slip from Year 2 to Year 3, but the same is likely to happen to Drake Maye, the reigning ACC player of the year, with offensive coordinator Phil Longo off to Wisconsin and Devontez Walker’s waiver being denied and costing him a chance to play this season. The statistical drop won’t hurt Maye’s draft stock because he’ll still lead the ACC with more than 3,800 passing yards and a highly respectable 40 touchdowns. But with an improved running game around him, he’s just not going to repeat as the league’s player of the year or take the defensively challenged Tar Heels beyond nine regular-season wins. Road losses at Pitt and Clemson following an opening loss to South Carolina will be the blemishes. Linebacker Cedric Gray’s 152 tackles will lead the ACC.

Some coaches are good at delivering results in Year 1, and Luke Fickell feels like one of those guys — due in part to playing in the offensively challenged Big Ten West and also the fact that he has the right quarterback to run a potent system. The Badgers will break through and win the Big Ten for the first time since 2012, exacting revenge for one of their two regular-season losses when they beat Ohio State on a late Braelon Allen 17-yard touchdown run. SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is a safe bet to eclipse Russell Wilson’s single-season school record of 3,175 passing yards and 33 touchdowns set in 2011. A second consecutive loss to Illinois, and ex-Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema, will keep 10-2 Wisconsin out of the Playoff.

22. Ole Miss

Lane Kiffin won 10 games two years ago, but getting back to that total this fall is a tall task with road games at Georgia and Alabama and a home game versus LSU right after facing the Crimson Tide. With nine starters back on offense, including the SEC’s leading rusher, Quinshon Judkins, I’m calling on the Rebels to improve from 33 to 39 points a game. Judkins will run for more than 1,500 yards again this season to lead the conference. Ex-Bama defensive coordinator Pete Golding will help the Rebels jump from ninth in the league in scoring defense (25.5 ppg) into the top five (22.0 ppg). But it still won’t be enough to beat Georgia, Alabama or LSU when quarterback play in the red zone lets them down.

Willie Fritz led the Green Wave from 2-10 in 2021 to a 12-2 record and a win over USC in the Cotton Bowl last season. His team won’t be the best among the Group of 5 schools in 2023 because five of Tulane’s leading tacklers from a year ago are gone. UTSA will head to the Cotton Bowl this year. But Tulane is still going to be good behind quarterback Michael Pratt, who will win league player of the year honors with more than 40 touchdowns and 4,000 yards of total offense. Pratt will even receive some Heisman buzz before UTSA goes into New Orleans and wins in the final week of the regular season.

24. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders haven’t had one quarterback start every game in a season since Patrick Mahomes in 2016, and they haven’t won nine games since the late Mike Leach coached his final season in Lubbock in 2009. Those streaks continue. For as much talent and experience as Joey McGuire has coming back on offense, defense remains the issue. Five teams ran for more than 200 yards against the Red Raiders last year, and with five of the six leading tacklers gone, Tech’s scoring defense will slip some.

25. Texas A&M

It will take only two games before new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and coach Jimbo Fisher are at each other’s throats over play calling — following a narrow road win at Miami in which the offense will fail to score in the second half. But the marriage is going to work out when Conner Weigman finishes third in the SEC with 3,421 passing yards and 31 touchdowns and Evan Stewart earns All-SEC first-team honors with 70 catches for 1,086 yards and 10 touchdowns. All of that, though, still won’t help the Aggies avoid a loss at Tennessee in the middle of the season before Ole Miss and LSU drop them to 9-3 in November.

(Top photo of Quinn Ewers: Photo by Tim Warner / Getty Images)