If you’ve been following along with BC Interruption’s preseason preview series, you may have noticed something. Our writers, as a collective, have predicted Boston College to finish an outstanding 10-2, with their only losses to Louisville and Pitt! What an amazing turnaround that would be from a team that finished 3-9 last season. Emmett Morehead must have incredible value in the Heisman Trophy betting market right now.
Okay, maybe that’s a bit optimistic, even for us. When our official record predictions come out next week, I doubt any of us will be that high on the Eagles. But it does illustrate just how winnable a lot of the games on the schedule are this year. BC is only facing one team in the preseason top-25 (FSU), the majority of their ACC opponents are expected to finish in the bottom half of the conference, and even their out-of-conference schedule is remarkably weak. Is it realistic to expect an incredible turnaround in 2023?
We’re going to take a look at two scenarios: a realistic ceiling and a realistic floor. Sure, it’s technically possible that Emmett Morehead could be the second coming of Matt Ryan and lift BC to a #2 rank in the country. It’s also technically possible that literally every starter on the team gets hurt and Jeff Hafley somehow finds an extra year of eligibility for Dennis Grosel as he leads us to an 0-12 record. But, for the purpose of this article, we’re going to try to keep things grounded.
Best-Case Scenario
A best-case scenario for BC, first and foremost, means a huge comeback for the offensive line. You can read our preview on the 2023 OL here, which is bringing in three pieces that could give them a whole new look. If the Eagles can start winning in the trenches, it will allow everything to start working again. They’ll be able to establish a good run game, led by former All-ACC second-teamer Pat Garwo III. That will allow Emmett Morehead, who has now had a full offseason of development as QB1, more time in the pocket and more opportunities to show off his impressive deep ball. And it also means that BC can start winning the time of possession battle again, allowing the defense to rest on the sideline for more than five minutes at a time. BC has a formidable DL this year and Hafley knows how to operate a defensive secondary, meaning Boston College could have one of the better defenses in the ACC to pair with a dynamic offense if everything goes according to plan.
The “Must-Wins”: Northern Illinois, Holy Cross, UConn, Army
These four games are the easiest on BC’s schedule. What an out-of-conference slate! It is very easy to imagine, in a best-case scenario, that the Eagles win all four of these games. 4-0.
The “Should-Wins”: Virginia, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
On paper, a best-case BC team is better than all three of these teams. In a realistic scenario, though, you don’t always win every game you should. Let’s say they win two of three, which puts them at 6-1. Bowl-eligible already!
The “Could-Wins”: Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Miami
These are all pretty good teams, all of which could flirt with top-25 rankings this year (maybe not Syracuse). Some are bound to do well, while some will unexpectedly falter. In a world where Boston College is firing on all cylinders, they should be playing on par with these squads or maybe slightly below them. So let’s give them a .500 record against these teams, making BC now 8-3 on the season.
Florida State
FSU is the only obvious juggernaut on the schedule. Some folks in the media are ranking them as high as #3 in the nation. Even in a best-case scenario, it’s difficult to see the Eagles pulling out a victory in this one. That leaves BC at an 8-4 final record in a best-case scenario, finally breaking through the dreaded Addazio line. With a schedule as easy as this one, that seems reasonable, even if they did have a bad year in 2022.
Worst-Case Scenario
A worst-case scenario is basically a repeat of last season, minus Zay Flowers. The offensive line is not able to put the pieces back together, resulting in yet another year of a terrible rushing attack, a QB who has to run for his life, and a defense that cannot get off the field. Just one or two injuries to the OL, especially Christian Mahogany, could make this kind of scenario a very real possibility.
The “Must-Wins”: Northern Illinois, Holy Cross, UConn, Army
Boston College, even if they play at the low level they did last season, can manage to accrue some wins here. The 2022 UConn game was responsible for some of the worst football I’ve ever seen in my life, Holy Cross is a sneaky formidable opponent this year, while NIU and Army seem like lower-level threats that still could easily beat a bad BC team. In a realistic scenario, though, the Eagles should still be able to pull out a .500 record against these squads, making them 2-2 overall.
The “Should-Wins”: Virginia, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
You have to imagine that Boston College will at least show up once against this group of teams, much like their performance against a mediocre Louisville team last season. And Virginia definitely seems like the most beatable ACC team they’ve played in years, with the Cavaliers even getting picked below BC in the preseason ACC poll. So let’s say the Eagles win at least one of these games, bringing them to a 3-4 worst-case record so far.
The “Could-Wins”: Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Miami
BC did manage to get a win against NC State last season, who would have fallen into this category. But it took a heroic last-minute drive in the 4th quarter, something that can’t necessarily be replicated in a worst-case scenario, so I’m going to project them to drop all four of these match-ups. 3-8.
Florida State
Ugh. 3-9. Again.
So those are your benchmarks.
If Boston College football finishes 2023 with an 8-4 regular season record, that means basically everything went as well as it could have. That’s your realistic ceiling.
If Boston College football finishes 2023 with a 3-9 record, things went terribly wrong. Nothing improved over last season and the BC staff miserably failed at fixing the issues that plagued them in 2022. This seems like an extreme scenario, but it’s not necessarily all that outlandish. It could just take a few key injuries to the OL or other positions to send BC right back down to the basement. That’s your realistic floor.
Agree or disagree? Let us know in the comments.
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