When looking at the viability of first-year NFL starters at QB, it is not enough to look at their individual talents. Their offensive surroundings and organizational culture matter so much for early success. It’s why the likes of Trevor Lawrence can look awful as a rookie while Dak Prescott can take the Cowboys to a 13-3 record. Their situation and prior experience matter so much.
Ranking the 2023 First-Year Starting Quarterbacks
First, it’s important to establish the incredibly arbitrary cutoff for the rankings. Although Brock Purdy is only in his second season with the 49ers and wasn’t named the starter as a rookie, he ended up starting eight games for San Francisco, including three playoff games.
Jordan Love enters Year 3, but he’s only started one NFL game. The most difficult decision was whether to add Desmond Ridder or not. He’s started four games for the Falcons, but he still feels like a rookie compared to Purdy.
Let’s rank how productive each of the first-year starting QBs will look in their offenses.
1) Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Although Love hasn’t had much on-field experience with the Green Bay Packers in the regular season, this will be his third year running the same offense.
The only offensive line on this list that competes with Green Bay is the Texans, who will need much better play from Kenyon Green while receiving serviceable play from rookie Juice Scruggs to claim that crown.
After spending years ignoring the non-RB skill position groups, Green Bay has spent a whopping seven draft picks on WRs and TEs in the past two drafts. Four of the seven have been Day 2 selections.
Two athletic tight ends and an uber-fast Christian Watson will make for some matchup nightmares, situationally. Romeo Doubs proved a reliable option as a rookie, and NFL Draft media criminally underrated Jayden Reed throughout the process despite being an outstanding three-level threat at Michigan State.
2) Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
It’s funny sometimes to see how far apart NFL media personalities and NFL teams can often be. Seeing Sam Howell fall to the fifth round, the same round the Packers would select Sean Clifford a season later, was baffling. Howell certainly had to sure up his lower-body mechanics, but despite being a bit on the undersized side of things, he was a playmaker at UNC.
Terry McLaurin finally having a QB who can consistently put the ball in his sphere should make life easier for him. Jahan Dotson has some of the best hands in professional football, and Curtis Samuel can make Howell’s life easier as a manufactured-touch guy around the line of scrimmage.
Add in an Andy Reid-inspired offensive scheme, and the Commanders could be a nice situation for Howell. Ultimately, their ceiling will be decided by their offensive line. Two years ago, they looked great, overachieving relative to their perceived talent level. Last season was different, but the QB could have played a large role in that as well.
3) Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young doesn’t have the complement of weapons surrounding him that Howell possesses, but the offensive line looks better (on paper). Ikem Ekwonu seemingly got better every week as a rookie.
But the offensive emphasis could help the OL look elite at times. A heavy dose of RPOs will help the Panthers consistently move the ball forward. They have a powerful offensive line, a few explosive backs, and a shifty runner at QB. Frank Reich won a Super Bowl with what the 2023 Panthers offense should look like.
4) Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
None of these QBs are in the dumpster fires we saw Lawrence or Justin Fields inserted into as young players. But despite decent situations, success will be tough to come by for the final two QBs on the list.
Anthony Richardson will go through growing pains as a passer. He was a one-year starter at Florida who, while showing flashes of processing ability to make one hopeful for the future, struggled to show it consistently. That simply comes down to a lack of reps at the college level to gain that feel.
However, what separates Richardson from Stroud is his offensive architect, the weapons surrounding him, and his own athletic ability. Even if the Colts’ offensive line resembles the underwhelming product from a season ago, Indy should have no issues running the ball.
Richardson’s athletic ability adds a gap for defenses who already don’t love to stack the box must account for. He also has Jonathan Taylor as his backfield partner — an RB who can house any handoff he’s given. That makes for two players in the backfield at 230+ pounds running in the 4.4 range who can go 80 yards on any snap.
That run game will bouy the Colts’ offense somewhat. Michael Pittman Jr. will be a menace over the middle in the RPO game. Josh Downs can separate against anybody. And Alec Pierce will work vertically to bring the best passing trait out of Richardson: his downfield passing ability.
5) C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Until C.J. Stroud finds the same kind of comfortability in the Houston offense that he was able to find in the Ohio State offense, the Texans will struggle. Although Stroud’s preseason INT was ugly, his other passing snaps were no Miss America.
It’s probably not easy to downgrade from the college level to the NFL level at wide receiver. And although there are worse units than Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Nico Collins, it would take a while to find where they are.
A good offensive line, which Houston appears to have, should theoretically help. But Stroud comes from an offense where every receiver could separate at will. And until he’s comfortable with the differences between college open and NFL open, he’ll take unnecessary sacks and make mistakes by holding onto the ball a tick too long.
